Before I inevitably stay up to watch them here's my quick pick of who will triumph in the film categories at tonight's Golden Globes.
Best Picture (Drama), Best Director (David Fincher) and Best Screenplay - The Social Network
As The Golden Globes are divided into drama and comedy it seems inevitable that The Social Network will ace the drama category at The Globes. Its main contenders will no doubt be The King's Speech and Inception but with the former picking up acting plaudits and the latter awarded for its techinal achievements it seems that The Social Network's efforts will be rewarded here. I also think that the director award will either go to Fincher or Christopher Nolan and while at The Oscars the battle will be fierce I think the Globe will go to Fincher. And there's no denying that The Social Network was certainly the best scripted film of the year so I predict a trio of awards thanks to Sorkin's contribution.
Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) and Best Actress (Musical/Comedy) - The Kids Are All Right and Annette Bening
Burlesque? Red? The Tourist? Alice in Bleedin' Wonderland? If any of these films win the Musical/Comedy Best Picture category then I refuse to believe that The Golden Globes have any bearing on the Oscars whatsoever. But I think that it will be Lisa Cholodenko's movie that wins it thanks to its warm and witty nature and its fantastic ensemble cast. Bening will easily walk away with the comedy actress award also as the only other real competition is her co-star Julianne Moore. But Bening's performance in the film feels more natural and she goes from uptight matriach to very emotionally raw and hurt lover in under an hour. It is a testament to her work that she never lets the character become a cliche and for that reason I think Bening will win the Globe and hopefully the Oscar.
Best Actor (Drama) - Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
No surprises here either. After last year being nominated, and winning a BAFTA, in the very interesting and well-made A Single Man the 2011 Awards Season will belong to Colin Firth's performance in The King's Speech. Firstly because Firth is a brilliant actor and second he is doing the Oscar thing by playing a real person who has a disability and there is even some Nazi involvement in there for good measure. Firth's main rivals seem to be young upstars like James Franco, Ryan Gosling and Jesse Eisenberg who will all have their day and have all put in superb performances but if there's any justice then Firth will definitely be rewarded here.
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy) - Paul Giamatti (Barney's Version)
Usually when doing the predictions for the Globes, I flip-flop in the Comedy/Musical category as its so hard to predict. This year with The Kids Are All Right being up it makes it slightly easier. But that still leaves room for Comedy Actor which last year went to Robert Downey Jr. for playing Sherlock Holmes over the rightful winner A Serious Man's Michael Stuhlberg. This year a similarly nervy 'what does it all mean?' performance from the always-brilliant Giamatti in Barney's Version is up against not one but two blockbustery performances from Johnny Depp in both The Tourist and Alice in Wonderland. However Depp, unlike Downey Jr, didn't really put any effort in in either of them and therefore shouldn't really win. I am plumping for Giamatti however there is also a strong possibility that Jake Gyllenhaal could win this as the Viagra Salesman in Love and Other Drugs but if I was forced at gunpoint I would plump for Giamatti. The other nominee is Kevin Spacey in Casino Jack a film that no-one went to see so I think here he is just making up the numbers.
Best Actress (Drama) - Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Another easy one. Portman's performance in Aranofsky's ballet mind-bender has been hailed as her best yet. Aranofsky has a history of getting award-nominated/winning performances from his stars look at Ellen Burstyn and Mickey Rourke. Portman herself is no stranger to the Globes having already won one for what many saw as her coming-of-age role in Closer. But here she goes all out and breaks boundaries, and a couple of mirrors, to go out of her comfort zone as tortured ballerina Nina. Portman also put in hours of work training to make sure that she was able to play a dancer correctly. There are some other good performances in her category from Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine and Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole however there's no betting her against her Portman will win.
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress - Christian Bale and Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Unlike last year's supporting categories which were sewn up early this year the field is much more open. Best Supporting Actor will most likely go to Christian Bale an actor who has tolled away for years in a variety of films and has finally been in an award-film the triumph-against-adversity style The Fighter. Bale's Dickie is kind of the anti-hero but at the same time you sort of root for his struggle to overcome his crack addiction. Bale may well be outdone on the night by The King Speech's Geoffrey Rush or The Social Network's Andrew Garfield but I think he's a fairly safe bet. Supporting Actress is a more wide category with The Fighter's Amy Adams up against Black Swan's Mila Kunis and The King Speech's Helena Bonham Carter. But I think Melissa Leo's character in The Fighter, a mum with many kids who just wants to do right by her sons, will get the votes on the night.
Best Animated Film - Toy Story 3
I really don't think I have to write anything here. Toy Story 3 was the Best Animated Film of the year and may be the only contender to topple The Social Network at The Oscars when it is inevitably nominated for Best Picture.
Best Foreign Film - Biutiful
Similarly with the absence of Of Gods and Men, it seems that Biutiful's only competition will come from I Am Love. But I think this interesting and well-made Spanish film with a great lead turn from Javier Bardem is an Awards film all over.
The other two awards are Best Song and Best Score. For Best Song I will plump for Alan Menken's return to Disney in Tangled with the song I See the Light and for Score its got to be Hans Zimmer's memorable gazumping soundtrack for Inception.
I'm hoping to be tweeting tonight at twitter.com/mattstvworld so find out live if I have indeed got any of these predictions right at all.
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