Oscars 2012 Digested

So Tuesday saw the revelation of who made it to the final hurdle and were nominated for an Academy Award there were a few surprises but most of it had been predicted as the fight between a silent movie star, a Parisian orphan, some African American maids, a British prime minister, a horse and a depressed father of two who looks a bit like George Clooney. In this blog I'll take you through all the runners and riders in the major categories

BEST PICTURE 

The Artist 

What it's about: A silent movie star goes into a downward spiral following the advent of sound cinema while at the same time a star is born in a young actress who started out in one of his films.
Why it's nominated: It harks back to old school cinema which would appeal to the older member of the academy but apart from that it's a charming film that more than deserves the awards it's been nominated for.
What its chances are: A favourite to sweep the board and pick up the Best Picture award and personally I do feel at this stage it can't be beaten. But a lot can change between now and the end of February.
Odds: 2/9

The Descendants

What it's about: A man living in Hawaii must bring his family together when his wife slips into a coma while at the same time trying to finalise a property deal for the land that his family have inherited.
Why it's nominated: It is the token offbeat film of the pack but one that has picked up a lot of steam thanks to star George Clooney who is good at picking up Oscar votes despite that his own film The Ides of March doesn't figure here.
What its chances are: It's basically the only film that can beat The Artist at this stage and even then it would be a massive upset, I do believe that it should be happy to have won the Best Drama award at The Golden Globes
Odds: 9/2

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

What it's about: A young boy tries to discover the meaning of a key that his father, who died during 9/11, left him before he died.
Why it's nominated: This was one of the surprise entries into the Best Picture category and one that got a rapturous applause when it was revealed to be in the mix. This is the only film I haven't seen but from the reviews I have read it isn't great and of all of these films it has the lowest IMDB rating by quite some margin. I'm guessing its here because it's good Oscar bait with its subject matter of 9/11 and its awards-friendly cast of Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock.
What its chances are: I honestly think it should just be happy with the nomination here as this will simply be the also-ran film and will be quickly forgotten about post-awards season.
Odds: 40/1

The Help

What it's about: A young writer decides she is going to create a story based on the life of the African American maids who serve the wealthy families in her hometown.
Why it's nominated: This was the film I didn't really want to see in the list but that was mainly because I had a bet that it wouldn't be nominated and now I owe a friend a coffee. This is the token message film about not judging people just because of the colour of their skin and does contain some great performances from its predominantly female cast three of whom have picked up nominations.
What its chances are: While it has picked up a nod throughout every awards season I feel The Help's best chances are in the acting categories.
Odds: 33/1

Hugo

What it's about: A young Parisian orphan who lives at a train station tries to discover the secret behind a mechanical man he and his father were building.
Why it's nominated: Mainly because it's directed by Martin Scorsese but more than that its success is similar to that of The Artist in that they both reference the early days of cinema. In the case of Hugo it goes right back to the dawn of cinema and its French roots it also helps that it looks fantastic and as you will see I feel it will pick up a few awards.
What its chances are: Despite being nominated for the most awards this year I feel that Hugo will most likely triumphant in the awards that honour artistic merit and not in the Best Picture category.
Odds: 12/1

Midnight in Paris

What it's about: An American writer, who has accompanied his girlfriend and her family to Paris, finds himself travelling back to the city in the 1920s where he meets some of his icons and falls in love.
Why it's nominated: Again mainly for nostalgic reasons as the scenes in twenties Paris must appeal to the old guard of the academy. This is also a return to form for Oscar favourite Woody Allen whose films have often been given acting or writing nominations however this is the first Allen film to be nominated for an Oscar since Hannah and Her Sisters in 1986.
What its chances are: Again this won is here due to a strong campaign being launched on its behalf and I think while the film isn't successful maybe Allen will be elsewhere.
Odds: 33/1

Moneyball

What it's about: The manager of a baseball team who became the first person to use computer statistics to put his team together rather than taking the advice of his scouts.
Why it's nominated: Possibly due to the script written by Aaron Sorkin or possibly due to Oscar favourite Brad Pitt taking the starring role but my theory is due to its message of triumph over adversity and never giving up on your beliefs. I'm also guessing that a large number of the Academy voters are baseball fans and remember this incident when it first occurred.
What its chances are: Again this is a film that is just filling a gap in the list and I wouldn't be surprised if it was one that just about made it in.
Odds:40/1

The Tree of Life

What it's about: If I'm honest I'm really not sure but it does tell the story of a 1950s family who are rocked by the death of one of its sons and it follows another of the sons coping with the effects of this in the present day.
Why it's nominated: I don't really know as The Tree of Life was a film that the critics went crazy over but I'm yet to meet a real person who actually liked because I thought it was very pretentious and it thought it was an important movie that had to be seen by everyone. I'm guessing the combined force of director Terrence Malick, who only makes one film per decade, with stars Brad Pitt and Sean Penn was enough to get this one a nod.
What its chances are: No chance whatsoever this is the bookie's outside pick for a reason and out of all of the Best Picture nominations this is the one that is most likely to go away with absolutely nothing.
Odds: 50/1

War Horse

What it's about: A horse which is bought by a Devon farmer goes on to have a massive impact on many lives during World War I.
Why it's nominated: I feel the war setting must have something to do with it and I think members of the academy were probably charmed by it's tale of friendship and perseverance. It also helps that its director is academy favourite Steven Spielberg who is always on the campaign trail when he feels he has film that may appeal to the Oscar voters.
What its chances are: At one time this was the favourite to win Best Picture but that was before The Artist started getting honours around the festival circuits perhaps if this was released in another year it would triumph but I think it may just have to be content with some technical awards instead.
Odds:14/1


Best Actor 

Nominees: Demien Bicher (A Better Life), George Clooney (The Descendants), Jean Dujardin (The Artist), Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy) and Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Thoughts: Of the four acting categories this is definitely the strongest and the one that still has some mystery behind it. George Clooney has to be the favourite here as he's been nominated almost every year and has previously won a Supporting Actor prize but this could be the year for his Leading Actor accolade. It is too early to say that Clooney has a lock on the award as The Artist's Jean Dujardin could still take this one and for me both performances were excellent. If I were a member of the academy I would cast my vote for Oldman's subtle performance in Tinker, Tailor as I felt it was utterly mesmerising but I think that he's lucky just to be nominated and despite losing the Oscar he may win the Bafta instead. A Better Life is the least familiar of the titles on this list but Bicher gives a great turn as a Mexican illegal immigrant who is trying to give his son the life he never had. It seems then that Brad Pitt is the weak link here while I didn't mind him in Moneyball it was never  a performance that I felt worthy of awards recognition.
Prediction: I wouldn't say George Clooney had it in the bag but I'm going to plump for him nonetheless.



Best Actress 

Nominees: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs), Viola Davis (The Help), Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) and Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
Thoughts: Like with Clooney, Meryl Streep is an Oscar favourite who holds the record for the most nominations in the acting categories with a previous sixteen nods however she has only ever won best actress once and that was almost thirty years ago. Though The Iron Lady has had a mixed response, I am yet to see it myself, one thing nobody has any doubt on is that Streep's performance/impression is fantastic. Streep's closest rival has to be The Help's Viola Davis, who has picked up a couple of awards so far, who again gives a strong turn as the maid who finally decides she's had enough and reveals her stories for a book told from the point of view of the staff. If Streep wasn't present I would've said that Glenn Close would've had a good chance as she both drags up and puts on an accent in the Irish-set Albert Nobbs and Michelle Williams has also appealed to the Oscar voters by inhabiting the role of Marilyn Monroe. The outside choice, and also the surprise nomination, is Rooney Mara who for me was the best thing about the English Language version of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo however I would've said that Tilda Swinton deserved the nomination more and would've been my pick to win.
Prediction: At this stage I can't see Streep being beaten.



Best Supporting Actor 

Nominees: Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn), Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Nick Nolte (Warrior), Christopher Plummer (Beginners) and Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Thoughts: This is the battle of the British actors with Brangah's Laurence Olivier impression going up against Plummer's gay man who is dying of cancer. At 82 years of age it seems that Plummer would have to be the favourite playing against type as the man who has finally been allowed to come out of the closet after years of lying to his son in addition it would also be good to see Plummer awarded for his many years on the big screen so Branagh might have to wait a few more years for his award. Ironically another 82 year old, Max Von Sydow, is also nominated here but he was the surprise nominee in this category and I can't see him winning. Of the other two Frat Pack favourite Jonah Hill was, in my opinion, the best thing about Moneyball as I feel he excelled in his first drama role but won't manage to be the old guard here and as much as I liked Warrior I wasn't overly wowed by Nolte's mumbling turn as the recovering alcoholic father.
Prediction: Christopher Plummer to win.


Best Supporting Actress 

Nominees: Berenice Bejo (The Artist), Jessica Chastain (The Help), Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs) and Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Thoughts: This was the category that offered up no surprises when it was announced and I feel the eventual winner, Octavia Spencer, will be no surprise either. In The Help Spencer plays the feistier of the two central African American characters and dominates the screen against Viola Davis' more subtle performance. For me though I preferred Spencer's co-star, and fellow nominee, Jessica Chastain who provided the comic relief in The Help as a ditzy housewife who herself is ostracised from the town's group of society girls. I'm still not sure why Berenice Bejo is nominated in the supporting category as her performance was just as integral to The Artist as Jean Dujardin's was but maybe they thought she had better luck if she wasn't up against Meryl Streep. For me though the award should go to one of the other two nominees, I thought Janet McTeer was the best thing about Albert Nobbs as her impression of a man was more convincing than Glenn Close's while Melissa McCarthy gets the token comedy award for playing the role of Megan in Bridesmaids and proving that she was more than just the token fat girl.
Prediction: At this stage there's no beating Octavia Spencer.


Best Director 

Nominees: Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris), Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist), Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life), Alexander Payne (The Descendants) and Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
Thoughts: This one really feels like an old boys club with veteran directors Allen, Malick and Scorsese all featuring within the ranks. It seems that at this stage Scorsese is the favourite to win the award which will shockingly be only his second Oscar but that's mainly because he won the Golden Globe. To be fair Hugo is Scorsese's lovechild and one of his most personal films with it being a love letter to the days of early cinema it captures perfectly his love of the first French directors. Talking of French directors it is part-French Hazanavicius who is my pick to win the award as again The Artist is his creative vision and you can just see how much direction has gone into that film. An outside bet might be Malick who the Academy will give the award to for his great body of work prior to the awful Tree of Life but I don't see either Woody Allen or Alexander Payne having any chance of a win. It could well be a split decision with The Artist taking Best Picture and Scorsese triumphing here but I don't think so.
Prediction: This is probably my biggest punt of the lot but I'm going to predict that Michel Hazanvicius wins this one.


Original and Adapted Screenplay 

As I mentioned earlier Woody Allen's success might come elsewhere and I feel that he could get another Best Original Screenplay award for Midnight in Paris whose message of not dwelling in the past is a good one. Allen's biggest competition here has to be Michel Hazanvicius' script for The Artist as the film itself may sweep the board it might just get this award anyway. Original Screenplay is an interesting category as it also features the Iranian film A Separation and banking crisis drama Margin Call neither of which I would've predicted featuring here but if you're looking for an outside bet you could do a lot worse than Kristen Wiig and Paul Feig's script for the brilliantly hilarious Bridesmaids.

There are some big names in the adapted screenplay category also with George Clooney among the names that adapted The Ides of March for the big screen and last year's winner Aaron Sorkin for co-adapting Moneyball. It is also good to see Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy here as i felt the adaptation of John Le Carre's original source novel was one of the best things about the film while Hugo also had a great script even if it was outshone by the spectacular visuals. But my pick has to be former winner Alexander Payne who co-adapted Kaui Hart Hemmings' original book alongside Nat Faxon and Community's Jim Rash.
Predictions: Original Screenplay - Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) and Adapted Screenplay - Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash (The Descendants)

Animated Film 

Nominees: A Cat in Paris, Chico and Rita, Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots and Rango
Thoughts: This is the first time I can remember a Pixar film, in this case Cars 2, being eligible but not being nominated in the Animated Film category. After back-to-back wins for Ratatouille, Wall-E, Up and Toy Story 3 the animation studio fails to even make the grade falling to two films from rival studio Dreamworks. Those two films, Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots, both opened to mix critical response but did tremendously well at the Box Office which I'm guessing is why they're here. However if a commercial success is going to win this award once again I feel it will be Rango as it has a broader appeal throughout the age ranges thanks to it's Western pastiche. But it is nice to see smaller films being given recognition while I'm not aware of French film A Cat in Paris it looks like a fairly interesting piece and I'll look forward to watching it whenever it's available over here. But by a country mile my favourite of the five is the sumptuous hand-drawn Latin American cartoon Chico and Rita which is the only nominee here to not be a film made for children and in the history of this award it is the only non-child-friendly animation to be nominated in this category..
Prediction: I am torn I feel that Chico and Rita may well win but the more logical choice is Rango which is what I feel I must plump for.

Foreign Language Film 

Nominees: Bullhead (Belgium), Footnote (Israel), In Darkness (Poland), Monsieur Lazahar (Canada) and A Separation (Iran)
Thoughts: I'm not a fan of how the Oscars pick their Best Foreign Language Feature nominees as each country is only allowed to submit one film despite many countries producing more than one superior film per year. I'm going to have a moan about snubs elsewhere in this article but where is The Skin I Live In or Poetry? Both brilliant pictures not nominated here as they should be. I have to say the majority of these films are yet to be released in the UK so I haven't had a chance to see them but thankfully one of my favourite films of last year has been nominated and that is A Separation. The film throws a spotlight on the mighty Iranian film industry and is an accessible film that deals with everyday issues but within the context of Iranian society. As it has previously won a Golden Globe and is one of the only foreign films ever to get a screenplay nomination I have to say it has to be the favourite by a large margin.
Prediction: A Separation to get the deserved win.


The Best of the Rest 

Don't worry I'm not going to bore you by going through all twenty four categories here, you've probably already had enough of me wittering on, but I'm just going to whizz through some of them. In a large number of the categories I can see it being a straight up duel between Hugo and The Artist with the dead certs being the former for Production Design and the latter for Original Score. I think the technical awards will be split between War Horse and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 with The Iron Lady picking up the award for make-up. In the Original Song category there are only two nominations and for me Flight of The Conchords' Bret McKenzie is a clear favourite for his song from The Muppets. Most of this year's Best Documentaries don't feature in the Best Documentary category so I'm going to say that Wim Wenders' 3D film about ballerina Pina Bausch will win the award. And don't ask me about the short film categories as I never ever am able to predict those so you'll have to sort that out on your own.

Snubs 

Well most people's favourite film of last year, including mine, was Drive which failed to get a look in apart from in the prestigious Sound Editing category and I'm sorry but that wasn't a knock to all you sound editors out there. I thought at least Albert Brooks would get a Supporting Actor nod but it seems he has lost out to Max Von Sydow. The fact it is nominated for Best Film at the BAFTAs proves that we Brits are always right.
The biggest surprise in the acting categories is that Tilda Swinton's portrayal of a distraught mother in We Need to Talk About Kevin hasn't been nominated after figuring in all of the other award lists up to now. I think that is mainly because former winner Swinton has trashed the Oscars in the past so they felt justified in their decision to give her nomination to Rooney Mara.
Other actresses who were denied a place on the list include Elizabeth Olsen and Olivia Coleman whose Tyrannosaur co-star Peter Mullan also deserves a mention.

However the biggest mistake seems to be leaving Senna out of the list for Best Documentary when it was the best documentary by some miles and for some it was there film of the year. We have known that it hadn't made it for quite some while as it wasn't even on the long-list but once again BAFTA gets it right and at least it will win one major award during the season.
And finally there's nothing once again this year for Kevin O'Connell the sound mixer who holds the record for the most Oscar nominations without ever winning anything to be fair though he'd only worked on The Muppets this year. 

Please leave your comments below about who you think will win the awards and who you think should've been nominated.