BAFTA Predictions

Yes tonight it's the big bash awards-wise on this side of the Atlantic as we have the annual BAFTA film awards. Unlike our American counterparts the BAFTAs is never considered important enough to be given a live televised ceremony so instead at 9pm we only get 2 hours of what the BBC think are the highlights. But for what it's worth here are my two cents:

Best Film, Best Actor (Colin Firth), Best Original Screenplay, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Film Music - The King's Speech
While it won't do a clean sweep, in my opinion, the BAFTAs will certainly honour this year's runaway British runaway success story with a plethora of awards including the top prize. There's no doubt in my mind that Colin Firth will pick up the best actor award and that it's screenplay will knock off its closest rivals - The Kids are All Right and Inception. And it's also got to get all the sort of arty and musicy awards as well but I think the technical awards will go elsewhere. I say these are only my thoughts and maybe the other actors and the director will be honoured as well but I've got a feeling that there is going to be a spread of the awards as the BAFTAs always like to point out where the Oscars got it wrong hence...

Best Director (Christopher Nolan), Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Sound, Best Visual Effects - Inception

The barmy decision not to nominate Christopher Nolan in the Best Director category at the Oscars means that he will no doubt pick up the award in his homeland. I don't think that The King's Speech is a film that particularly survives on who it's director is and probably Tom Hooper will have a long and succesful career. But Inception really is Nolan's film and as he's a Brit I reckon the BAFTAs is the place to honour him. As its one of the most cinematic films of the year I reckon that it will grab all these awards which it deserves especially for Visual Effects. The only one it may not get is Best Cinematography as it could be Roger Deakins' year for his spectacular work on True Grit.

Best Actress (Natalie Portman) and Best Hair and Make-Up - Black Swan

I don't know if Portman is as safe here as she is at the Oscars in terms of picking up the Best Actress award. The fact that both Annette Bening and Julianne Moore are nominated for their roles in The Kids are All Right either means that BAFTA is pretty hot on that film or they're going to cancel each other out. Noomi Rapace's nomination is an interesting one and I'd like to see her get it but I don't think its going to happen. But Portman's biggest threat is a 14 year old called Haille Steinfeld who at the Oscars is nominated for Best Supporting Actress but in her role as Mattie Ross in True Grit she truly is the leading star and in my opinion gives a better all round turn than Portman but I'm still going to plump for Portman just because I think she's going to get the clean sweep.

Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Again someone who has been doing clean sweeps this awards season and someone who deserves it. Although his role as the drug-addled Dickie in The Fighter isn't his best role it is still a hell of a performance and is one that deserves accolades. However his competition here is a bit different than elsewhere although he is coming up against Geoffrey Rush and Mark Ruffalo the other two Brits nominated - Andrew Garfield and Pete Posslethwaite aren't up for the Oscar. If they wanted a King's Speech clean sweep Rush might get it, and I actually preferred his performance and also Garfield may get it in terms of him not being nominated for the Oscar. But if anyone is to knock Bale from his perch it is going to be the late great Pete Posslethwaite who is nominated for his very scary role as the crime leader The Florist in The Town. It would be a testament to his years of service to the British film industry if he were to win but would it seem that they were honouring such a small role just because the man has died? I just think Bale has the edge tonight.

Best Supporting Actress - Lesley Manville (Another Year)

This is where I'm sticking my neck out a little bit as this is my most brave prediction of them all. But Best Supporting Actress is an interesting category as the Oscar favourite, The Fighter's Melissa Leo, isn't nominated despite her co-star Amy Adams still appearing in the list. Alongside Adams there is only one other actress who has been nominated at the Oscars that being Helena Bonham Carter who may again get the award if The King's Speech is going to sweep the board. Out of the other three we have Barbara Hershey as the scary mother in Black Swan and Miranda Richardson as Barbara Castle in Made in Dagenahm both fine performances but both don't really leave an impression. But if a Brit is to win then I'd rather Lesley Manville over Bonham Carter or Richardson. Manville's fragile, funny and human performance in Mike Leigh's Another Year was one of my favourite of the year. It has been cruelly overlooked at all the American awards and I thik it would only be right if the Oscars gave Manville her due.

Best Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network

I've really not got a lot to say on this one other than I will eat my hat if Aaron Sorkin doesn't get this award. I think in terms of the awards season this is the only one that is guarenteed as The Social Network wouldn't be anything if it weren't for Sorkin's re-working of the story of the creation of Facebook. We are given a lot of great dialogue that feels real and characters that are sympathetic and do the wrong things for what they feel are the right reasons. Although 127 Hours' screenplay did impress for the way that Simon Beaufoy was able to stretch the material and make it a story worth caring about there's no doubt in my mind whatsoever that Sorkin's going to win.

Best British Film - Four Lions

I'm really torn once again here as last year was such an astounding year for British films. Best British Film does usually go to a film that hasn't been given as much exposure elsewhere and usually if a British Film is going to win Best Film it won't win this award as well. That means The King's Speech is out of the running and in my opinion 127 Hours is as well as that's been given quite a lot of plaudits over in the States. As much as I loved Another Year and Made in Dagenham both of them have sort of a quaint very old-school British feel to them I wouldn't mind if either of them won and the latter may have a chance but I just think that it's not going to happen. And that's mainly because this award usually goes to something a bit brave or a bit different something that looks at another side of Britain and in the last few years the award has gone to This is England and Fish Tank so Chris Morris' Four Lions should be the front-runner. A very funny film about suicide bombers doesn't seem like something that should work but thanks to its central cast and the direction of Morris it is pulled off and even makes the bombers look sympathetic. Overall this is impossible for me to judge but I'd like to see BAFTA go brave and give Morris his due.

Best Film Not in the English Language - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

This is another hard category to judge as there's some impressive films in this list. I Am Love and Biutiful have both been quite sucessful in terms of Festival wins and the latter has also had Javier Bardem's Best Actor nominations to steam it forward. Of Gods and Men is another one that did very well at Cannes and critically has been lauded as one of the best of the year. The Argentinian crime thriller The Secret in their Eyes was one of my favourite from last year but already has the Oscar won. But if I were to select a winner I would go with The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo a franchise that has become a runaway success with all three films in its trilogy doing well at the Box Office which is astounding for a foreign film. The BAFTAs have recognised that and have placed the film in a few categories this year but I reckon its success and its Lead Actress' peformance will count in its favour and it will be named Best Foreign Film.

Best Animated Film - Toy Story 3

Another obvious choice here. Unlike at The Oscars were it is nominated against the brilliant The Illusionist. Toy Story 3's competiton at the BAFTAs comes from two mainstream Hollywood animations - How to Train Your Dragon and Despicable Me. The dragon film was alright and had some impressive sequences but Despicable Me was very underwhelming and unremarkable. The final film in the Toy Story franchise was bright, funny, moving and engaging and should be honoured in the Best Film category. But Woody, Buzz et al will have to deal with just winning the Animated category. And while I'm on it where is The Illusionist? And Chico and Rita? And Mary and Max? Oh well.

Orange Rising Star Award - Andrew Garfield

The last two years it has been fairly easy to pick the winner of this award as it was the person who had the most fans who were willing to pick up the phone and vote for them. Noel Clarke had the Doctor Who brigade behind him in 2009 and last year the Twi-Hard made sure it was Kristen Stewart's year but this year's five nominees aren't associated with a particular franchise so its much harder to pick. The only American of the five is Emma Stone who I loved in Easy A but I don't think enough Brits are familiar with her to vote for her. Gemma Arterton had a great year combining roles in pitiful Hollywood fare like Clash of the Titans with roles in more interesting British films like Tamara Drewe and The Disappearance of Alice Creed but again not enough people saw these films to vote for her. But people did go and see Kick Ass, Inception and The Social Network so for me its between Aaron Johnson, Tom Hardy and Garfield. I think in terms of phone votes it won't be Hardy even though he stole most of the scenes in Inception again he hasn't done enough to warrant people voting for him. It might be Johnson thanks to the comic book geeks love of Kick Ass but my money owuld be on Garfield simply because loads of geeks love The Social Network and he's also got Never Let Me Go out at the cinemas at the moment. I think Garfield is a tremendous talent and has shown this on T.V. for several years now and with him playing the new Spiderman I do think that his star has sufficiently risen.

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer - Gareth Edwards (Monsters)

Again a hard one for me to judge as this category does include some of my favourite films of the year. It would be quite cool for Banksy to win the award for his faux documentary Exit Through the Gift Shop just for the speech. Similarly its nice to see small British films like the gritty The Arbour and the brilliant Skeletons given recognition. But again for me its between two - Chris Morris could well get the award but its more likely that Four Lions will get British Film instead. But Gareth Edwards seems like the right choice for this award as he took a small budget and used to make a film that look like a blockbuster. Monsters was a subtle film part sci-fi part road movie with Edwards creating most of the effects on his computer and casting mainly non-actors to give Monsters a very real edge. Edwards is a hell of a talent and I think that's why this award should go to him.

But then again what do I know The King's Speech could win everything and Toy Story could be Social Network for the Adapted Screenplay award but I'm just going with my instincts combined with my personal feelings of the films that dominated what I consider to be a very good year for films in general.