Oscar Predictions

Didn't do too badly on my BAFTA picks the other week seeing as I took two punts neither of which paid off, here I'm going to play it a little bit safer with one exception so here's my Oscar predictions for 2010:

Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography and Best Editing: The Hurt Locker
Definitley a lock for Best Director, Katherine Bigelow will make history tonight as the first woman ever to win the award and rightfully so as the film is a masterpiece and certainly the best directed picture out of the five. Screenplay wise Mark Boal's biggest competition has to be Quentin Tarrantino for Inglourious Basterds, seeing as his films up for so many awards he may just snatch this one even though the screenplay isn't perfect, Up might also be in with a brief shot but there's no way either A Serious Man or The Messenger will win. The other three awards are the ones in which Avatar is the strongest competition and they may split the techinical awards more evenly but I certainly think that the cinematography and editing was stronger with The Hurt Locker. Having previously discussed Best Picture in depth in my previous blog I will just say that it is the tightest competition in years and fingers and toes are crossed that the mighty Hurt Locker triumphs ovr Avatar.

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
Best Actor was meant to be a lock last yaer with Mickey Rourke a definite winner for The Wrestler but somehow he was pipped at the post by Sean Penn possibly because of his involvement in Wrestlemania and possibly because his speech may've been a little blue. But Bridges is a consumate professional and will deliver a moving speech no doubt, he is the clear winner and despite the film being particularly gentle his performance his engaging. His strongest competition would have to be George Clooney simply because he is well liked in Hollywood, having not seen A Serious Man I can't comment on Firth's chances but I heard he delivers the second best performance out of the five. While Freeman's Nelson Mandela is particularly stoic and I think Jeremy Renner is just happy to be nominated, there's no doubt in my mind that Bridges will triumph.

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan (An Eduction)
Here's where I take my punt. Even though alledgely Sandra Bullock is a lock to win the award for The Blind Side I think this might be the surprise of the night. Like when Penn beat Rourke or when Alan Arkin beat Eddie Murphy a few years back there's always a shock and I think it might come here. But because the category is so tightly packed I'm not sure who will win it all I know is it won't be Helen Mirren another one who seems to be just in there to make up the numbers. It may well be Meryl Streep as we know Oscar loves an impression (Bullock's film is also real-life story) and apparently Ms. Streep delivers a hell of a likeness of Julia Child in Julie and Julia. But for me its between the two youngster Gabourey Sidibe for Precious and Carey Mulligan for An Education. My reasoning is that Sidibe gives a subtle and almost real-life portrayal of Precious but at the same time Mo'Nique will win an acting award for the film which may harm Sidibe's chances. That leaves Mulligan, the Brit's strongest hope to leave with some sort or accolade. In An Education, she is charming and captivating in a very old-fashioned story and without her in the lead the film may've been a lot worse, although the American's 'might not get it' I think she's in with the best chance and that's why I'm saying Mulligan over Bullock.

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
Risky bet over its time to settle down for two performances which will certainly garner awards. Waltz is brilliant in Basterds, the only true star of the film and in my eyes the leading man but he deserves an Oscar no doubt for this role. My other two favourite male supporting performances didn't even make the short list, those being Alfred Molina in An Education and Christian McKay in Me and Orson Welles, meanwhile Stanley Tucci gets a nod for being creepy in The Lovely Bones and Matt Damon for playing an actual person in Invictus. But Waltz will win, no question.

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique (Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire)
Another sure fire winner, Mo'Nique is tremendously terrifying in Precious playing the abusive mother from hell but also shows a softer side in the final scenes. It's an incredible achievement for a comedienne to pull of a role this dark so again Mo'Nique deserves the plaudits. I can't see anyone else beating her although I'm glad to see Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga in the list as they both provided great support for Clooney in Up in the Air, while Maggie Gyllenhaal had some great chemistry with Bridges in Crazy Heart. The one question is how Penelope Cruz got on the list. She won this category last year but she was hardly in Nine and when she was she was completely over the top. I much would've preferred to see Marion Cotillard in the running as I think she was better in Nine. But that's just academic, Mo'Nique will win here.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
This isn't a certainity but as its won all the screenplay awards so far I will go for Reitman and Turner's adaptation of Walter Kin's book of Up in the Air. My personal pick would go for Nick Hornby, not only because he's my favourite author, but because he managed to transform one chapter of Lynn Barber's memoir into an entire film script. Elsewhere it would be amazing if In the Loop won, mainly because I would loe to hear Armando Iannucci's speech, but that's not going to happen. We all know Precious was based on the novel Push by Sapphire and so it's no surprise to see that hear but District 9's inclusion is deserved it is still surprising. A good mix here and Up in the Air may not win but that's my decision nonetheless.

Best Art Direction, Best Original Score, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing, Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Given the size and scope of Avatar it will definitely tie with The Hurt Locker's award score, if not beat it, but if Bigelow's Iraq materpiece does clinch the big one I reckon Avatar will clean up in the technical categories just to make Cameron feel better. It's definitely got to win Art Direction as the design of Pandora was immense and really transported you to this foreign planet. Meanwhile its effects were better than those of its rivals District 9 and Star Trek. The sound in the film was also impressive so I think we'll see it win in both of those categories. Score is the only one where I'm not a 100% but I really enjoyed James Horner's sweeping melodies and thought it definitely added to the film as a whole. The biggest competition in this category has to come from Michael Giacchino's bouncy score for Up, mainly because animations always do pretty well in the music categories but I'll plump for Horner. Avatar may well win more but those are the ones I think it will win.

Best Costume Design: Nine
Coming to an area where I know nothing about, costume and make-up, and I'm really torn in this category between two. Although the costumes in The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus were good I don't think that stands a chance, similarly Coco Before Chanel and Bright Star are in here because of the period vote. That leaves The Young Victoria and Nine, two possible winners each of which has a seasoned pro behind the costumes. Both Nine's Colleen Atwood and Victoria's Sandy Powell have won the award tiwce, the former for working with Nine director Rob Marshall on Chicago and for Memoirs of a Geisha and the latter for her work on The Aviator and Shakespeare in Love and this is also there eighth nomination in the category. I just think that Nine was better designed, each of the women had a signature look and costume and the costumes at some time outdid the plot. So that's why I'm going Nine for Costumes and Victoria for Make-up.

Best Make-up: The Young Victoria
Having not seen the film I'm not sure of the prowess of the film in this category and I know little about make-up and its promincence in the film but my reasoning is that period dramas usually do well in these categories so I'm going for the same film in both. Certainly in terms of make-up the other two films, Star Trek an Il Divo, seem mis-placed here and I don't know why District 9 didn't get a nomination.